专家解读云南省瑞丽市的新冠疫情影响
- 2021-04-02 17:18:57
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- 作者:秘书处Secretary's Office
3月31日0时至24时,云南省新增确诊病例6例,新增无症状感染者23例,均在瑞丽市。确诊病例和无症状感染者中,中国籍和缅甸籍都有。
From 0:00 to 24:00 on March 31, 6 new confirmed cases and 23 new asymptomatic infections were found in Ruili City, Yunnan Province. Among the confirmed cases and asymptomatic cases, there are both Chinese and Burmese.
3月30日,疫情发生之后,瑞丽开启新一轮封城。根据瑞丽4月1日中午疫情发布会的消息,截至当天8时,瑞丽已完成全员共计309448份核酸采样,累计追踪到密接及次密接人员1320人,全部进行集中隔离医学观察。截至3月31日8时,瑞丽停课学校52所,涉及学生32252人。另外,瑞丽继续加强边境管控,投入各方面力量3900余人24小时轮流值守在边境一线。瑞丽相关机构1日宣布,暂时关停珠宝交易市场及翡翠互联网直播。瑞丽市姐告国门社区等5地调整为中风险地区。
On March 30, after the outbreak of the epidemic, Ruili opened a new round of city closures. According to the information released at noon on April 1, Ruili had completed a total of 309448 nucleic acid samples by 8:00 on the same day, and 1320 secret and sub secret contacts were tracked, all of them were under centralized isolation medical observation. As of 8:00 on March 31, Ruili had closed 52 schools, involving 32252 students. In addition, Ruili continued to strengthen border control and put in more than 3900 people from all walks of life to take turns on duty at the border. Ruili related institutions announced on the 1st that the jewelry trading market and jadeite internet live broadcasting will be temporarily closed. Ruili City jiegaoguomen community and other five areas were adjusted to medium risk areas.
3月30日,瑞丽在当天疫情通报时表示,在对重点人群开展例行核酸检测采样时发现了最早一批阳性患者。但通报信息没有对重点人群社会身份做出具体界定,也未披露患者行程轨迹。据4月1日中午举行的瑞丽第三场疫情新闻发布会的信息,瑞丽公安、卫健部门将全力以赴抓紧做好流行病学调查和溯源工作,全面摸清重点人群行动轨迹。并对核酸检测阳性人员开展流行病学调查,追踪传染来源。
On March 30, Ruili said in the same day's epidemic notification that the first batch of positive patients were found in the routine nucleic acid testing and sampling of key groups. However, the information did not make a specific definition of the social identity of key groups, nor did it disclose the trajectory of patients. According to the information of Ruili's third epidemic news conference held at noon on April 1, Ruili's public security and health departments will spare no effort to do a good job in epidemiological investigation and traceability, and comprehensively find out the action track of key groups. And carry out epidemiological investigation on nucleic acid test positive personnel to track the source of infection.
厦门大学南洋研究院缅甸问题专家范宏伟因工作关系曾走访过瑞丽,他在4月1日接受《环球时报》记者采访时表示,中缅两国在瑞丽没有天然屏障,出入便利,加之边境线长达160多公里,人员来往频繁密集,所以边防难度比较大。范宏伟还告诉记者,瑞丽还存在着两国人民同宗同源的问题,互市通婚、杂居相处特点明显。因此,目前被检出的确诊病例和无症状感染者既有中国籍也有缅甸籍,但不同国籍很难成为判断疫情来源的明确指向。
Fan Hongwei, an expert on Myanmar in Nanyang Research Institute of Xiamen University, once visited Ruili because of his working relationship. In an interview with the global times on April 1, he said that there is no natural barrier between China and Myanmar in Ruili and it is convenient to enter and leave. In addition, the border line is more than 160 kilometers long and people come and go frequently, so the border defense is difficult. Fan Hongwei also told reporters that Ruili still has the problem that the two peoples share the same ancestry and the same origin, and the characteristics of intermarriage and living together are obvious. Therefore, the confirmed cases and asymptomatic infected persons are both Chinese and Burmese, but different nationalities are difficult to be the clear direction to determine the source of the epidemic.
防疫专家陶黎纳告诉《环球时报》记者,从瑞丽两天通报的确诊病例和无症状感染者数量上来看,疫情有可能已在当地传播一段时间了。未来随着全员核酸检测逐渐完成,还会有阳性患者被陆续检出。
Epidemic prevention expert Tao Lina told the global times that judging from the number of confirmed cases and asymptomatic infections reported by Ruili in two days, the epidemic may have spread in the local area for some time. In the future, with the gradual completion of nucleic acid testing, there will be positive patients detected one after another.
不过陶黎纳认为,因为瑞丽人口较少,且偏于一隅,因此疫情向外扩散的概率较小,疫情规模也不会太大。陶黎纳表示,“中国对疫情的控制已经非常有经验,瑞丽发生疫情以来已经采取非常严格的措施,比如封城停课。接下来,瑞丽全员核酸检测可能不止一轮。所以对于瑞丽疫情不用太过担心。”对于此轮疫情的产生原因,陶黎纳认为,从目前官方所披露的信息很难判断。另外,因为瑞丽中缅人员密集来往的特点,单纯靠新冠病毒的基因测序也不容易判断病毒来源。“现在重要的是采取防控措施,并尽快筛查出所有的密接者和次密接者,防止疫情进一步扩散,以此为基础再开展疫情溯源工作比较合适。”▲
However, taolina believes that because Ruili has a small population and is in a corner, the probability of the epidemic spreading out is small and the scale of the epidemic will not be too large. "China has been very experienced in the control of the epidemic. Since the outbreak of the epidemic in Ruili, very strict measures have been taken, such as the closure of the city and the suspension of classes," taolina said. Next, there may be more than one round of nucleic acid testing. So don't worry too much about the Ruili epidemic. " For the cause of this round of epidemic, taolina believes that it is difficult to judge from the information disclosed by the government at present. In addition, it is not easy to determine the source of the new coronavirus only based on the gene sequencing of the new coronavirus because of the characteristics of intensive personnel exchanges between China and Myanmar in Ruili. "Now it is important to take prevention and control measures and screen out all the close contacts and sub close contacts as soon as possible to prevent the further spread of the epidemic. It is more appropriate to carry out the traceability of the epidemic on this basis." ▲
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