“脱欧”不打紧，还有“全球化”（环球热点）

        "Europe off" does not matter, and "globalization" (global hot)

1月25日，在瑞士达沃斯，英国首相特雷莎·梅在世界经济论坛年会上发言。新华社/路透

　　英国首相特雷莎·梅首次访华，世界关注。处在“脱欧”特殊时期的英国，既向中国表达了合作的意向，又努力维持与美国的“特殊关系”，同时在“脱欧”谈判中力争日后与欧盟保持良好的贸易关系，积极为“脱欧”后英国的发展创造良好环境。

　　外交活跃

　　1月31日—2月2日，特雷莎·梅对中国进行为期3天的访问。此访是她就任英国首相之后的首次访华。

　　外界普遍认为，在英国“脱欧”的背景下，寻求加强中英两国的经贸合作是特雷莎·梅此行的重点议题之一。

　　近来，英国很活跃。

　　英国与欧盟的“脱欧”谈判目前即将开始第二阶段，聚焦英国“脱欧过渡期”以及英欧未来关系。尽管双方对于未来贸易关系的预期存在偏差，但英国始终强调，无论“脱欧”与否，欧盟都是英国重要的贸易伙伴。特雷莎·梅多次强调想要与欧洲建立“长久的良好关系”，英国财政大臣哈蒙德日前也公开表示：“我们与欧盟存在非常重要的贸易合作关系，我们的优先任务就是继续维持这一关系。”

　　美国是英国在欧盟之外最重要的合作伙伴之一。此前，美国总统特朗普突然取消访英行程，各界对于英美“特殊关系”产生了诸多猜测。不过，在刚刚结束的达沃斯论坛上，两国领导人似乎有意为英美关系“正名”。

　　据英国路透社报道，两位领导人举行了15分钟的会晤，特朗普声称美英关系紧张是“虚假的传言”，他和特雷莎·梅之间的“关系真的非常好”。特雷莎·梅也回应道，两国“肩并肩的特殊关系”仍会持续。会后，两位领导人均表态称，此次谈话将导致两国之间的贸易“大幅增长”。

　　艰难时期

　　“总体来说，目前英国外交处在比较艰难的时期。”中央党校国际战略研究院副教授赵柯接受本报采访时分析称。

　　《日本经济新闻》称，英国正在经历“脱欧”谈判的阵痛。

　　“脱欧”给英国经济带来了持续的负面影响。国际货币基金组织预测，英国2018年GDP增速将仅为1.5%，落后于欧元区的增速1.9%。而且，由于英国与欧盟未来的贸易关系尚不明确，伦敦的“金融之都”地位受到了挑战。据彭博社报道，越来越多的金融企业正弃伦敦而去，在法兰克福建立新的总部。

　　“在与欧盟的‘脱欧’谈判方面，英国不断让步，被动地接受欧盟开出的条件。”赵柯说，英欧关系中，英国对欧盟的依赖大于欧盟对于英国的依赖，这会为英国的外交布局造成难题。

　　接下来“脱欧”谈判依然困难重重。欧盟不希望“脱欧”后的英国再享有欧盟单一市场的福利。欧盟首席谈判官巴尼耶表示，欧盟不可能为了英国单独寻求全新的贸易便利化框架。作为英国最大的出口市场，欧盟的这一态度显然会为英国日后的经济发展带来阻碍。

　　赵柯说：“另一方面，英国寄希望于‘脱欧’后加强和美国的‘特殊关系’，但是由于自身对美国的战略价值下降，很明显遭到了美国的冷落。此外，在‘脱欧’谈判结束之前，英国与其他经济体的贸易谈判也会受到诸多限制。”

　　《卫报》分析也认为，尽管美国表现得热衷与英国进行自由贸易谈判，但在特朗普“美国优先”思想和保护主义措施之下，英美之间能否达成贸易协定还很难说。

　　重新定位

　　“脱欧”开始之后， 英国在外交政策上做出了很多调整。

　　在1月19日的达沃斯论坛上，英国首相特雷莎·梅发表演讲，重申“脱欧”决心，传递出了英国想要进一步拥抱全球化、打造“全球化英国”的信息。美联社评价称特雷莎·梅的这一系列发言“将英国留在了达沃斯的全球地图上”。

　　中国国际问题研究院欧洲研究所所长崔洪建接受本报采访时表示：“在观念上，英国在适应‘脱欧’以后外交环境和外交任务的改变。特雷莎·梅政府提出的‘全球化英国’可以说是一个纲领性的定位，英国外交政策的目的都是为了实现这一定位。在具体的行为上，英国的首要任务是要处理好和欧盟的关系，同时还要积极发展和其他国家的关系，保证国际社会对英国的认可度和信心，同时为英国争取一个比较好的市场环境。”

　　特雷莎·梅表态称，在退出欧洲单一市场后，英国希望和欧盟国家逐步签署自贸协定，同时也会与非欧洲国家签订自贸协定。她说：“英国属于欧洲，但更是属于更广阔的天地。我们就是一个全球贸易国家，而不希望只是和欧洲国家贸易。”

　　崔洪建认为，“脱欧”为英国带来了种种不确定性，因此短期内，英国的国际影响力会打折扣。但从长远来看，英国政府也有可能通过外交手段来弥补这些损失，继而开辟出一片新天地。他指出，“毕竟英国‘脱欧’是要去‘探索一片未知’，所以现在对英国影响力的变化下结论还为时过早。要看在以后的发展过程中，英国能否捕捉到于它有利的时机，能够在多大程度上跟紧国际形势变化的方向。如果英国政府在这方面做的足够好，英国也有可能在‘脱欧’之后得到更多益处。”

来源：人民网

            "Europe off" does not matter, and "globalization" (global hot)

British Prime Minister Teresa May visited China for the first time and paid attention to the world. In the "off the European" special period of Britain, both expressed the intention to cooperate to China, and strive to maintain the "special relationship" with America, Japan and EU after and strive to maintain good trade relations in Europe off negotiations, "actively for the development of British and European" to create a good environment.

Diplomatic activity

From January 31st to February 2nd, Teresa May made a 3 - day visit to China. The visit was her first visit to China after her appointment as British Prime Minister.

It is widely believed that it is one of the key issues of Teresa Mei to strengthen the economic and trade cooperation between the two countries in the context of the British "de Europe".

Recently, Britain is very active.

Britain and the European Union "from Europe" is currently the start of the second stage of negotiations, the British "focus from Europe in transition" and European relations in the future. Although there is a deviation between the two sides in anticipation of future trade relations, the UK has always emphasized that the EU is an important trading partner in the UK regardless of "off Europe". Teresa Medots stressed that want to establish "good relations" for a long time with Europe, the British finance minister Hammond recently also publicly said: "we are very important for trade cooperation relations with the EU, our priority is to continue to maintain this relationship."

The United States is one of the most important partners of the UK outside the European Union. Prior to the sudden cancellation of the visit to Britain by President Trump, all walks of life have made a lot of speculation about the "special relationship" between the United States and the United States. However, in the just concluded Davos forum, the two leaders seem interested in Anglo American relations "name for".

According to the British Reuters, the two leaders held a 15 minute meeting. Trump said the tension between the US and Britain is a "false rumor". His relationship with Teresa Mei is really good. Teresa May also responded that "a special relationship between the two countries" will continue. After the meeting, the two leaders said that the talk would lead to a "substantial increase in trade" between the two countries.

Hard times

"On the whole, the British diplomacy is at a relatively difficult time." Zhao Ke, vice professor of International Strategic Research Institute of the Central Party school, said in an interview with this newspaper.

"Japan's economic news" says Britain is experiencing the pain of "deeu" negotiations.

The "de Europe" has brought a sustained negative impact on the British economy. The IMF forecast that the UK's GDP growth in 2018 will be only 1.5%, behind the euro zone by 1.9%. And because the future trade relations between Britain and the EU are not yet clear, London's "financial capital" position has been challenged. According to Bloomberg news, more and more financial companies are abandoning London to build a new headquarters in Frankfurt.

"In the" de Europe "negotiations with the EU, the UK continues to concession and passively accept the conditions issued by the EU. Zhao Ke said that the relationship between Britain and Europe, Britain to the EU dependence than EU for Britain's dependence, this will cause problems for the British diplomacy.

The next "deo" negotiations are still difficult. The EU does not want the UK to enjoy the welfare of the EU's single market. The European Union's chief negotiator, Baniya, said the EU could not seek a new framework for trade facilitation for the United kingdom alone. As the UK's largest export market, the EU's attitude will obviously bring obstacles to the development of economy of the British day.

Zhao Ke said, "on the other hand, Britain hopes to strengthen the special relationship with the United States after" off Europe ", but because of its decline in the strategic value of the United States, it is obviously ignored by the US. In addition, before the end of the "de Europe" negotiations, the trade negotiations between the UK and other economies will be limited.

The guardian also believes that although the US is keen on free trade negotiations with the UK, it is hard for us to reach a trade agreement between Trump and the US under the idea of "American priority" and protectionism.

Repositioning

After the beginning of "deeurope", Britain has made a lot of adjustments in foreign policy.

The Davos forum in January 19th, British Prime Minister Teresa May speech, reiterated that "Europe off" determination, passing out of the UK to further embrace globalization, to create "global English" information. The Associated Press said that this evaluation of a series of speeches "Teresa May will stay in Britain in Davos on the global map".

Cui Hongjian, director of the European Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of international studies, said in an interview with the newspaper: "in terms of the concept, Britain is adapting to the change of diplomatic environment and diplomatic tasks after" off Europe ". The "globalized Britain" proposed by the Teresa May administration can be said to be a programmatic orientation, and the purpose of British foreign policy is to achieve this position. In terms of specific behaviors, the first task of Britain is to deal well with the relationship with the European Union, while actively developing relations with other countries, ensuring the recognition and confidence of the international community, and at the same time, striving for a better market environment for the UK.

Teresa May declared that after he withdrew from the European single market, Britain hoped to sign the FTA step by step with the EU countries, and would also sign FTA with non European countries. She said, "Britain belongs to Europe, but it belongs to the wider world." We are a global trading country, and we do not want to trade with the European countries only. "