险资瞄上哪类个股：主流险企持续布局传媒板块成长股

What kind of individual stocks: the mainstream insurance companies continue to layout media sector growth stocks.

金融界 2018-03-20 08:15:00

“巨无霸”的一举一动牵动着市场的敏感神经，屡次“先知先觉”的保险资金，这次又瞄上了哪类个股？多家保险机构的投资经理、研究员在接受记者采访时，都谈到了最近正布局传媒板块成长股。

两大理由看好传媒股

缘何看好传媒板块，受访的主流保险机构投资经理表示，根据他们内部的预判，成长股仍在上行趋势中，目前相对看好传媒板块，尤其是业绩与估值相匹配、在细分领域中具备较强竞争优势及“护城河”的龙头型公司。他们将持续精选符合上述条件的部分个股进行布局。

他们给出了以下两个理由：一是低估值，历经两年多时间的持续消化，目前该板块整体动态市盈率处于5年来的最低位，部分细分领域已经呈现出较高的安全边际和性价比；二是基本面不断向好，业绩稳健增长，受春节长假等因素影响，预计电影、娱乐等细分产业链的传媒股今年一季报将普遍报喜。

除传媒板块之外，他们预计，未来随着一些政策相继落地，可在医药、计算机、电子等“四新”相关行业中精选盈利与估值匹配的优质个股。主题方面，可关注沪深交易所大力支持的新蓝筹、独角兽概念的投资机会。

在谈到周期板块时，受访的保险机构投资经理表示：“企业盈利仍可维持，但考虑到投资链略有承压，我们不认为周期品具有较好的投资机会。”

当下策略：灵活控制仓位

就整体投资情绪来看，多数保险机构的投资经理谨慎乐观。

他们认为，整体上看，市场仍将受制于新开工相关数据的回落，但不宜对经济过度悲观。尤其是经济向上超预期的核心因素——外贸仍在向好趋势中。对资本市场而言，债市或略有压力，股市受益于经济向好。

债券市场方面，上周央行持续净投放，上周五超量续作到期MLF，温和态度呵护下市场平稳度过CRA到期高峰和缴税时点。市场人士分析认为，在经济数据大幅超预期、美联储加息预期的影响下，市场心态偏谨慎，债券市场涨势受限。

多位保险机构固收投资经理表示，当前不确定性因素较多，短期内关注资管新规出台等可能引发的利率冲高后的交易性机会。不过，目前对趋势性机会的判断仍需谨慎，如果二季度央行操作回归中性常态、叠加资管新规落地可能引发银行资产端实质调整，届时这一轮债市反弹能否持续仍待观察。

“无论是债市还是股市，最近都要留意市场环境的变化，须跟踪欧美加息进程、全球贸易摩擦、美股风险外溢及国内监管政策。我们当下的操作策略以灵活控制仓位为主。”上述保险机构投资经理对记者说。

本文源自上海证券报

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What kind of individual stocks: the mainstream insurance companies continue to layout media sector growth stocks.

Financial industry 2018-03-20 08:15:00.

"Big MAC" moves the sensitive nerve of the market, the insurance fund of repeatedly "the prophet", this time target what kind of individual stock? Investment managers and researchers from several insurance institutions talked about the recent development of the media sector.

There are two reasons to be bullish on media stocks.

Why bullish about the media sector, according to the study of the mainstream insurance agency investment manager, said, according to their internal anticipation of growth stocks is still in the upward trend, the current relatively optimistic about the media sector, especially the results match the valuation, have a strong competitive advantage in the niche and type "moat" leading company. They will continue to select some individual stocks that meet the above criteria for layout.

They are given the following two reasons: one is the low valuations, after more than two years of continuous digestion, at present the sector as a whole dynamic price-earnings ratio at its lowest level in five years, part of the niche has presented a higher margin of safety and cost performance; The second is that the fundamentals are constantly improving, the performance is growing steadily, and the media shares, such as movies and entertainment, are expected to be reported in the first quarter of this year.

In addition to the media sector, they forecast that the future as some policies have fall to the ground, can be in medicine, computer, electron, etc., in the "four new" related industries selection earnings and valuation matching quality stocks. On the theme, we can pay attention to the investment opportunities of the new blue chips and unicorn concepts which are strongly supported by the Shanghai and shenzhen exchanges.

When it comes to cycle plate, according to the study of insurance agency investment manager, said: "corporate profits can still maintain, but considering the investment chain slightly under pressure, we don't think the cycle of product has good investment opportunities."

Current strategy: flexible control of positions.

In terms of overall investment sentiment, most insurers' investment managers are cautiously optimistic.

On the whole, they argue, the market will still be constrained by a pullback in new data, but not too pessimistic about the economy. In particular, the core factor of the economic upsurge is that foreign trade is still in a good trend. For capital markets, bonds or a little bit of pressure, the stock market has benefited from the good economy.

On the bond market, last week, the central bank continued its net release. Last Friday, it extended its MLF to a moderate level, and the market smoothed through the peak of CRA's expiration and tax payment. Market participants analyzed that the market was cautious and the bond market was constrained by the impact of big economic data and expectations of a fed rate hike.

A number of insurance agency fixed income managers said that there are more uncertainties in the current situation, and in the short term focus on the trading opportunities that may be triggered by the new rules and regulations. However, the judgment of trend opportunity is still need to be careful, if the bank return to neutral normal operation, in the second quarter of overlay information new rules could trigger a landing bank assets end real adjustments, then this round of bond market rally can be sustained remains to be seen.

"Whether it is the bond market or the stock market, it is important to keep track of the changes in the market environment, to track the rate hikes in the us and Europe, the global trade frictions, the spillover of us equity risks and domestic regulatory policies. Our current operating strategy is dominated by flexible positioning. The insurance agency investment manager told reporters.

This article comes from the Shanghai securities journal.

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