文化传媒行业复苏 传媒巨头崛起

Cultural media industry recovery media giant rise.

古风论市 2016-07-26 21:55:52

5月6日，《中国传媒产业发展报告（2016）》的发布让业内同仁的目光聚焦到过去一年我国传媒产业的发展态势上。其中的数据显示，2015年，中国传媒产业整体保持增长态势，增幅较2014年略有放缓。一方面是面对复杂多变的全球经济环境，我国的经济增速开始放缓，各行各业的投资趋于谨慎，广告行业在2015年受到经济大环境的冲击，全国广告经营额较上年仅增长5%左右，甚至没有跑赢GDP（6.9%）。在严峻的宏观经济背景下，中国传媒产业在2015年仍然增长了12.3%，整体市场规模达到12750.3亿元人民币。

未来几年我国GDP增长将转入中高速，由此带来的增长结构与方式的转变，将给行业发展带来持续动力。近年来文化传媒行业产值与占比在GDP逐步下滑的背景下呈连续上升的趋势。同时,随着国家十三五规划进一步明确大消费的战略以及文化产业的支柱性，在今明两年体育与教育证券化时代也纷纷到来的路口,整个文教体娱产业的发展前景变得更为明朗起来。

2016年文化传媒行业持续低迷，这和政策持续对网剧、综艺、手游等重要内容方向的监管力度加大有很大关系，有多部人气大火的网剧、综艺被叫停下架，对电视、综艺、电影的把控更是细之又细。以13日广电总局印发《关于进一步加快广播电视媒体与新兴媒体融合发展的意见》为转机，国家开始重视新兴媒体的力量目前政策的监管利空效应基本释放完毕，因此使得传媒行业整体存在反弹的客观环境。

此外从行业内生的利好来看，传媒行业在近日接连迎来多项利好因素的累计：

（1）《PokemonGO》上市火遍全球，使得任天堂股价大涨，游戏行业因此拓展了新的发展空间，VR/AR技术与游戏结合的商业价值得到了完全的肯定；

（2）《老九门》播放量破10亿的表现继续证明了优质内容的网剧发展空间依然很大，因此优质IP如果具有较好的开发运营能力,其商业价值仍然十分巨大；

（3）7月暑期档来临，进入国产电影保护月，一些进口大片被屏蔽，国产电影即将迎来大爆发，并且今年的国产电影水平有所提高，各大影视公司也有所准备，好多未上映的电影引发期待，《大鱼海棠》上映以来收获4.6亿票房。

建议投资者积极关注下半年文化传媒行业整体基于利空出清及内生接连利好所带动的整体板块性行情，建议投资者积极关注IP、VR/AR两大题材以及暑期档影视股。

优质个股分析：

光线传媒（300251）：近期光线传媒拉升后放缓脚步，有所下跌，正是买入的好时期。预计半年报公布时间为2016.08.16，半年度业绩大幅上升302.00%，目前由光线传媒投资的《大鱼海棠》正在热映，票房突破4.6亿，2016年光线传媒下半年上映的重点影片包括动画片《大鱼海棠》、《我叫MT》、《精灵王座》、以及真人电影《从你的全世界路过》、《无罪辩护》、《嫌疑人X的现身》、《无罪辩护》、《大闹天竺》等。后续储备项目包括电影:《鬼吹灯》、《少林寺》、金庸作品《天龙八部》《笑傲江湖》《鹿鼎记》、《暴走白日梦》、《三体》等。储备的电视剧和网剧:《诛仙》、《盗墓笔记2》、《笑傲江湖》、《左耳》、《星辰变》、《东宫》等，可以说一个传媒巨头正在崛起。

Cultural media industry recovery media giant rise.

Ancient wind theory city 2016-07-26 21:55:52.
On May 6, the release of China media industry development report (2016) will focus on the development trend of China's media industry in the past year. According to the data, in 2015, China's media industry overall maintained a growth trend, which was slightly slower than in 2014. On the one hand, in the face of complex and changeable global economic environment, China's economic growth is slowing, investment tend to be more cautious in all walks of life, the advertising industry in 2015 by the impact of the economic environment, the advertising business revenue grew by about 5% on the previous year, GDP did not even beat (6.9%). Under the severe macro-economic background, China's media industry still increased by 12.3% in 2015, and the overall market size reached 127.50.3 billion yuan.

In the coming years, China's GDP growth will be transferred to medium-high speed, and the resulting growth structure and transformation will bring sustained impetus to the development of the industry. In recent years, the output value of culture and media industry has been rising continuously in the background of declining GDP. At the same time, as countries much starker choices-and graver consequences-in planning make a clear definition of the strategy of large consumption as well as the culture industry pillar, securitization of sports and education in the next two years, age are crossing, the arrival of the development of the whole cultural and educational entertainment industry outlook becomes clearer.

2016 cultural media industry continues to weaken, and this policy continues to net play, variety, and tour the direction of the important contents such as hand strengthening regulation has much to do, there are a number of popular net play, variety were called to stop the fire, the control for television, variety, movies is more fine and thin. To 13, administration of radio, film and print and distribute "about further accelerating the development of radio and television media and emerging media fusion opinions for transferring, countries paid attention to the regulation of the power of the emerging media policy finished basic release negative effect, thus makes the objective environment of media industry as a whole exists rebound.

In addition, from the perspective of industry insiders, the media industry has been enjoying a series of positive factors in recent days:

(1) the PokemonGO listed fire all over world, makes the nintendo shares rose, thus expand the new game industry development space, VR/AR technology combined with the game of business value has been completely sure;

(2) the old nine door play 1 billion continue to prove the performance of the high quality content network is a large development space, so IP if it has good development capacity, its great commercial value still;

July summer coming, (3) months into the domestic film protection, some imported large blocked, the domestic industry will soon celebrate outbreak, and the level of domestic film has improved this year, the film and television companies are prepared, a lot of the movie did not look forward to, the big Chinese flowering crabapple release since 460 million.

Recommends that investors positive attention in the second half of the culture media industry as a whole based on bad clearing and endogenous plate on the whole market and have good by a recommended investors actively focus on IP, VR/AR two big subjects, and summer film and television.

Quality stock analysis:

Light media (300251) : it is a good time to buy after the recent slowdown in light media. Expected time half annals published for 2016.08.16, semi-annual performance has risen by 302.00%, the current media investment by the light of the big Chinese flowering crabapple is hit, the box office hit 460 million, 2016 light media release in the second half of the focus of the film including cartoon "big Chinese flowering crabapple", "I'm MT", "the elves throne", and live-action movie "from your passing around the world", "not guilty", "the suspect X appeared", "not guilty", "big big tianzhu" and so on. The following reserve projects include films such as "ghost blow lamp", "shaolin temple", jin yong's works "the eight parts of tianlong", "the smile and the ao river", "the deer and the cauldron", "the daydream", "three bodies" and so on. Reserves of drama and drama: ", ", "grave note 2", "smile the ao river's lake", "left ear", "stars become", "east" and so on, a media giant is rise, so to speak.